Kruger Insights Monday – December 2, 2013 by FirstMacro

BinaryOptionsNow | Published on December 2, 2013 at 11:30 am

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Reflections – Ok..so we head into the final month of trade for 2013. It has been a tale of two halves for me. I was able to get out of the gates fast and managed to capitalize after making some big bets on Yen and Aussie shorts against the buck. There were some other nice ones in the first 6 months of the year, but the key standouts were definitely the Yen and Aussie short plays. The second half of the year has been a net loser, though fortunately, the setbacks during this time have paled in comparison to gains seen in the first half. The key standout losers in recent months have been an AUD/NZD long back in July which was stopped for a loss, and a couple of short attempts in US equities that were clearly mistimed. I was able to mitigate some of these second half losses with a long Gold position in late June at $1250, and an exited longstanding long USD/CAD position from just under parity. Overall, I can’t complain and am definitely looking forward to 2014.

kruger insights december 2, 2013

Looking Ahead – So what am I looking for in 2014? Well..I will be looking for a lot of what I have been looking for in the second half of 2013. Despite the losses with my shots at fading the equity market rally, I will continue to look for opportunities to short what I believe to be a very exhausted rally. The effortless push to fresh record highs on (what seems to be) a daily basis, at this point, can not be sustained on technical merits, and the risk for a more sizable corrective decline increases with each passing day. The higher we go, the further I think we will drop once this liquidation gets going. There is no denying that the stock market has been artificially supported by the Fed, and with very little dovishness left to price in at this point, how much more can this market really rally? A fed taper might not be coming as soon as this month, but should happen at some point over the next few meetings. This taper will represent the official shift in monetary policy, and though not doing much to really tighten things up, will carry with it this deeper symbolic implication. So my favorite trade for 2014 is not an FX trade, but rather, looking for that significant pullback in equities. Interestingly enough, my only short-term exposure right now is in another non-FX market. Last week I sold some Bitcoin at $1175, and will be curious to see if I can catch a nice move here, as this parabolic firestorm looks to contend with the forces of gravity.

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