Kruger Insights Friday – December 6, 2013 by FirstMacro

BinaryOptionsNow | Published on December 6, 2013 at 5:00 pm

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Fade The Break – So yesterday, I talked about a potential breakout in EUR/USD. In the analysis I highlighted the fact that the risk for any extended gains in the event of an upside break would be limited, with the market seen well offered into the 1.3650-1.3720 area. At the moment, there is scope for gains towards 1.3720 in the session ahead, however once this 78.6% fib retrace off of the October to November high-low move is tested (and slightly exceeded), I would be on the lookout for another bearish reversal. So the recommendation for today would be to sell an overshoot of that 78.6% fib at 1.3740, with a stop-loss above the yearly high at 1.3840. I would then leave the objective open, and look for a medium-term reversal back down towards 1.3100 over the coming weeks.

kruger insights december 6, 2013

Also Of Interest – Other markets worth watching right now include, USD/JPY, EUR/CHF, AUD/NZD, GOLD and US equities. USD/JPY has been showing signs of exhaustion following the recent medium-term triangle break, and could still see additional declines towards 99.00 before bullish continuation. EUR/CHF has broken down to fresh multi-day lows and looks like it may want to test some critical support at 1.2215 which guards against the more significant 1.2000 barrier. AUD/NZD is interesting because the daily, weekly and monthly charts all look overextended, and with the market recently testing the psychological 1.1000 handle, the timing could finally be right for the start to a major trend reversal. The daily chart is showing signs of a bounce, but at this point, nothing is conclusive.

Away From FX – GOLD is hovering over its multi-month low from late June at $1180, and I would expect to see another sharp drop in the sessions ahead that challenges this level. I like the idea of buying GOLD on a dip to a fresh multi-month low, but right now we need to wait for that to happen first. Finally, US equities are once again possibly hinting of a bearish reversal, but nothing can be taken too seriously just yet and the price action is really only a tease at the moment. I am watching the S&P and would like to see a break and daily close below $1770 to encourage these reversal prospects. Friday’s monthly US employment report is the key risk for the day, and the outcome could certainly do a good job of influencing the direction of all of the markets cited above. My bias is positioned to the short risk side, and it will be interesting to see how things play out. The confluence of risk reversal warnings across multiple asset classes has been supporting my view, but we still need to get better confirmation which has yet to occur.

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