Kruger Insights Tuesday – November 26, 2013 by FirstMacro

BinaryOptionsNow | Published on November 26, 2013 at 11:00 am

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Front Loaded – Unless you have managed to jump on this latest USD/JPY breakout or be long equities, trading has been rather difficult in recent weeks and months. For the most part, the major currencies have been locked in consolidation, and there really haven’t been any clear opportunities. Even USD/JPY was a difficult play before finally breaking out some days back. While I do think all of this will change and the catalyst will come from a reversal in the stock market, I am not sure sure we should get too excited about expecting anything this week. The US markets will be closing up shop early on account of Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday, and US market closures tend to quiet markets. Tuesday and Wednesday’s US economic calendars are however stacked and we could get some movement on the back of these results. First up is some housing data today, followed by initial jobless claims on Wednesday (amongst other data). Any signs of improvement in these respective data series, could help increase the probability of a Fed taper as soon as next month. And we all know what influence a taper will have on the stock market and risk assets.

kruger insights november 26, 2013

Tale Of The Tape – Technically, the S&P did put in a bearish reversal close on Monday indicative of a top, and we will have to wait and see if this bearish formation shows and follow through into the Tuesday close. Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains very well bid on dips, but with daily studies overbought, there is the possibility that we see a corrective retreat back below 100.00 before the market considers its next major upside extension through 103.75. Elsewhere, Aussie and Kiwi have regained a bit of a bid tone, but look for these markets to once again be well capped against the buck on rallies into 0.9300 and 0.8350 respectively. The Canadian Dollar should also be very well offered on rallies as USD/CAD prepares for a break beyond 1.0600 to fresh yearly highs. Look for USD/CAD dips to now be supported ahead of 1.0400. Moving on, Cable has once again been very well capped above 1.6200, and the latest topside failure could now open a more immediate retest of recent lows at 1.5850. Finally, last but not least, the Euro isn’t sure which way it wants to break at the moment. I would be keeping a close eye on 1.3580 above and 1.3400 below. The 1.3400 level is more significant in my view as I believe the risks in EUR/USD are tilted to the downside. Below 1.3400 would open an eventual 1.3100 retest.

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